Your estimate is one number.
Your risk isn't.

BidRisk Analyzer turns any construction estimate into P10 / P50 / P90 confidence levels, shows which line items drive your risk, and tells you the price you need to hit your margin — in minutes, not a semester of @RISK training.

Start free 14-day trial No credit card. Sample project pre-loaded.
P10
P50
P90
Live simulation — a $12.4M sample bid, running right in your browser.
Built on 25+ years of estimating leadership $4B/yr bid volume experience $1B+/yr in contract awards Triangular & PERT · correlation · tornado
The problem

A single-number estimate hides the question that matters

Every bid review asks the same thing: "How confident are we?" A deterministic total can't answer it. A distribution can.

$12,460,000

Without BidRisk

One number, gut-feel contingency, and a margin that evaporates when three trades overrun together. You find out at closeout.

P50 $12.7M · P90 $13.6M

With BidRisk

A defensible range, the exact line items driving it, and a bid price with a stated probability of hitting your target margin. You find out before you sign.

How it works

From bid tab to risk report in three steps

STEP 01

Paste your estimate

Copy line items straight from Excel. Name and Most Likely is enough — global savings/overrun percentages build your ranges automatically.

Name · Min · ML · Max
STEP 02

Set ranges & correlation

Apply global ranges, then nudge individual trades. Group items that overrun together — same crew, same supplier, same commodity — so your P90 is honest.

−5% Min · +20% Max · ρ 0.60
STEP 03

Price for margin

Run 10,000 iterations. Read P10/P50/P90, the S-curve, and your tornado of risk drivers. Enter a bid price and see your probability of clearing target GP.

P(GP ≥ 18%) = 74.2%
Features

Everything a bid review demands. Nothing it doesn't.

ENGINE

Triangular & PERT

Choose the distribution your risk review prefers. True Beta-PERT sampling, not an approximation.

ENGINE

Correlation groups

Gaussian-copula correlation so grouped trades overrun together — the difference between a toy and a defensible P90.

ANALYSIS

Tornado sensitivity

See which line items drive your cost uncertainty, ranked in dollars, top drivers flagged.

ANALYSIS

Scenario compare

Pin as-bid vs. aggressive vs. conservative runs and overlay their S-curves on one chart.

PRICING

Margin confidence

Enter target GP and a proposed price — get the probability of achieving it, plus prices at 50/80/90% cost confidence.

OUTPUT

Branded PDF reports

Your logo, your company name, an engineering-grade report that drops straight into the bid package.

Why trust it
"I built this because I needed it. Twenty-five years running estimating teams taught me that the tools were either spreadsheets held together with macros, or enterprise software nobody had time to learn. BidRisk is the middle that was missing."
— Founder, Industrial Bid Systems · Senior estimating leadership, industrial construction
25+
Years estimating
$4B/yr
Bid volume led
$1B+/yr
Contract awards
Founding launch

One plan. Everything included.

No tiers, no feature gates, no upsells. Founding members get the entire tool — and keep this price for life, even as plans and prices change later.

Founding member · first 50 only

BidRisk Analyzer — Full Access

$990$590/yr
Locked for life · 14-day free trial · cancel anytime
  • Full Monte Carlo engine — Triangular & PERT
  • Correlation groups (Gaussian copula) & tornado sensitivity
  • Margin confidence pricing — P(GP ≥ target) at your bid
  • Scenario compare with S-curve overlay
  • Branded PDF reports — your logo, your company
  • Excel paste-in · unlimited saved projects
  • Direct line to the founder — your feedback shapes the roadmap
Request founding access
Need multiple seats? Email us — team and enterprise licensing available.
FAQ

Questions estimators actually ask

How is this different from @RISK or Crystal Ball?

Those are general-purpose simulation suites — powerful, expensive (roughly $2,000+/yr), and built for analysts. BidRisk does one job: construction bid risk. Paste an estimate, set ranges, read your P-levels and margin confidence. No training course, no Excel add-in fights, at a fraction of the price — with everything included in one plan.

Do I need to know statistics?

No. If you can say "this trade could come in 5% under or 25% over," you can use BidRisk. The tool explains correlation and distributions in plain estimator language, right where you need it.

Does my estimate data leave my machine?

Projects save as files you own and keep. We don't sell, share, or mine your cost data — your numbers are your competitive advantage, and we treat them that way.

What kind of projects does it fit?

Any lump-sum or hard-bid work with line-item estimates: commercial buildings, industrial, civil, storage and terminal work, subcontractor packages. If you carry contingency, it fits.

Can I put the output in front of a client or an executive review?

That's the point. Reports carry your logo and company name, formatted like an engineering deliverable — percentile table, S-curve, tornado, and stated assumptions per line item.

Be one of the first 50

Everything included, $590/yr locked for life, free for 14 days. Your first risk report in under ten minutes.

Start free trial